In the past week we’ve seen several articles drawing the outlook for global geopolitical challenges for 2025. This post will reflect on a few of the issues under debate and point to sources for a deeper dive.
Overview on US
Trump’s new presidency is clearly high on the priority issues, as his measures will likely impact all across. His approximation to Elon Musk is also seen as a surprisingly important element for the shaping of US policy in 2025 not only domestically, but also in foreign policy. Domestically, Musk has been assigned to co-lead the US Department of Government Efficiency, with the (some will say ambitious) goal of cutting back as much as U$2 trillion from federal budget.
His influence, however, is not predicted to end there, as Musk has been getting more and more involved in discussions around international conflicts. Media has reported an exclusive meeting between Musk and Iran’s ambassador to the UN, Amir Saeid Iravani, not commented by the White House nor Trump’s spokesperson, with the aim to discuss how to ease tensions between the two countries. Additionally, he has joined Trump on a call with Ukrainian ‘s president Volodymyr Zelensky, and in a meeting with Hungarian Prime minister Viktor Orban, in early December. These events clearly sets the stage for how the entrepreneur – now turning politician? – is infiltrating himself into US government, a movement that is being called out as a turn from democracy to oligarchy in US political regime. To quote the Council on Foreign Affairs: “For Musk’s influence to grow, his chemistry with Trump must remain strong. The risks of a clash of two Mars-sized egos remains clear. Yet, for now there are no signs of discord as the two men seem to ravel in one another’s power.”
Overview on China
The year 2025 will mark the end of China’s last 5-year plan, and the year for planning the forthcoming policy cycle. In the meantime, China is struggling to promote consumer spending, so current policies are being focused on boosting consumption in its domestic market. Meanwhile, the Chinese government is still facing harsh export controls for strategic technologies from the US, and the coming Trump administration comes with threats of higher import tariffs on Chinese goods.
Overview on Europe
Europe is facing challenges that span from economic decline and diminished influence in global affairs to an endangering deficit in its security and defense mechanisms. On the innovation front, the EU has not been able to present itself as an attractive place for venture capitalists. Along with being a heavily regulated market, launching a start-up business in Europe is knowingly more difficult than in the US. These barriers may also be aggravated by European’s less competitive working and business culture. European investors are more risk averse and workers are less inclined to sacrifice less of their private time and quality of life balance. The “hustle culture” does resonate in Europe in the same way it does in the United States, and this is certainly a part of what makes US innovation endeavors highly successful.
Additional sources:
What we’re watching around the globe in 2025, from Council on Foreign Affairs
From Musk to Gaza: Issues we’re watching in 2025, from Council of Foreign Affairs
The world in 2025, from Chatham House
Ten trends to watch in 2025, from The Economist
2025: The year we get better at being wrong, from the European Council on Foreign Relations
Yanis Varoufakis: What to Watch for in 2025 – Trump, the US dollar and China, from Democracy in Europe Movement YT channel
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