EU democratic resilience, strategies, and skills for the future

This post comes to report on two events that took place in Brussels last week. On Thursday, 05 December, we had the European Policy Center 2024 annual conference, which debated strategies and skills needed to lead the future of the European Union. On Friday, 06 December, we had a comprehensive debate on the EU Democracy Shield, hosted by the European Economic and Social Committee.

Leading the European Union in the new era

The overall picture of the global political stage, as painted by the speakers of the EPC conference, is anything but cheerful. From a macro perspective, the new era is characterized by a new political cycle that carries significant challenges such as major shifts in global geopolitics, the emergence of new patterns of cooperation, the decline of multilateralism, and the rising interference of digital technologies in the political discourse. As the new order emerges, the world is becoming more conflicting and fragmented, revealing a condition often referred to as the “poli/permacrisis”. The growing interdependence that characterized the peace dividend of the twentieth century is becoming weaponized.

The 2024 re-election of Donald Trump to the US presidency also appears as a concern in the EU political agenda. As characterized by some of the speakers, Trump is driven by mega-ideologies, has an unpredictable personality, is very transactional, and has a narcissistic flare — he likes to win. Many of his political values clash with those of the EU tradition, especially multilateralism and rule-based order. Instead, Trump follows a political posture of “might is right”.

The criticism is that EU political leaders seem to not have yet awaken to the urgency and scale of the challenge, especially as the block faces growing technological and skills gaps, high energy prices, a major armed conflict in its neighboring territory (the Ukraine war), and its persistent demographic problems such as an ageing population and immigration crisis. In this problematic scenario, EU strategic priorities should circle around defense, economic security, technological sovereignty (including critical raw materials), and mitigating climate change.

How to position the EU amidst China-US rivalry

According to Sabine Weyand, the Director General for Trade from the newly elected 2024 EU Commission, the European Union must have a strategy in place to deal with the growing power rivalry between the United States and China. This rivalry is revealing new shifts in the global supply chain, which are being presented to the EU as growing economic risks. This condition signals to the EU block that priorities should be focused on the security and resilience of its supply chain and critical infrastructures — “we must have clarity over our own strategic objectives, then work with others in light of these objectives… look at partnerships considering our own objectives”.

The defense industry as opportunity

The conference also had the participation of Andrius Kubilius, the new EU Commissioner for Defense and Space. In his talk, he acknowledged that the expert community understands defense as a priority, and the EU must be ready for the most extreme contingency stages, meaning that member states need to be ready for military aggression. Not that this is the outcome desired for the shifting order of global geopolitics, but that the very fact that a major armed conflict is happening in its neighboring territory, alongside the growing rivalry and military power of US, Russia, and China, makes it very clear that the security issue is at an urgency state. Kubilius stated that a new white report is to be published within the first 100 days of his mandate, which will highlight EU defense priorities, address strategies to grow its own capabilities in terms of military preparedness (including an industrial output plan and considering NATO’s defense plans currently under revision), and formulate on feasible avenues to raise funding for defense investment.

Protecting the EU Democracy Shield

In the event hosted by the EESC (European Economic and Social Committee), participants debated how contemporary issues are threatening EU democracy. In May 2024, the European Union announced the Democracy Shield proposal, which seeks to combat misinformation and manipulation of public opinion, particularly those caused by foreign interference.

Given the growing impact of information and communication technologies in the political debate, the European Union seeks to safeguard its democratic process by promoting reliable online information sharing, improving digital and media literacy, and increasing citizenship participation.

Alexandra Geese (Greens/EFA), a voice for digital policy in the European Parliament, mentioned that a major issue is how big tech companies profit from misinformation. As she explained, the sharing mechanism that amplifies specific messages in social media is anchored on impulsive mental triggers that stimulate fear, anger, and anxiety among users, all of which are strategies to capture attention and increase user engagement. To her, citizens and institutions need to be particularly resilient to the amplification of misinformation. This is even more problematic when people rely on platforms like TikTok to get their news and information, which is clearly known for steering up these negative responses from users. To mitigate this problem, she would like to see large platforms responsible for conducting a thorough assessment of their algorithms in relation to the systemic risks they carry. She would also like to see a new business model where algorithmic psychological triggers are replaced by user choice of information.

The main thing is to stop a system that amplifies misinformation, along with stopping the machineries that make use of these platforms and their amplification mechanisms to deploy specific narratives with the aim to manipulate public opinion. A big part of the problem, as described by Julie Majerczak, from Reporters Without Borders, is that advertising money shifted from traditional media to companies like Google and Meta, a move that created a monopoly of the advertising industry. To her, attracting more capital to independent media is in urgent need, and is also the kind of initiative that can meliorate the reliable information sharing issue.